A recent podcast summary from Tech in Asia suggested I believe “the VC playbook that built Silicon Valley is failing SEA” and that the power law is fundamentally broken here. That’s not quite what I meant, so let me clarify.
The power law absolutely exists in Southeast Asia; it’s just operating at a different scale and frequency than Silicon Valley. While the Valley might produce multiple billion-dollar exits annually, we generate unicorn-scale outcomes every two to four years. This isn’t failure; it’s the reality of our market size and maturity. The question isn’t whether the power law works, but whether we’re calibrating our expectations and fund construction to match our actual exit landscape.
This recalibration matters more than ever. When your typical exit is $200 million rather than $10 billion, entry valuations and ownership percentages become even more critical. The math still works; it just requires different fund sizes, deployment strategies, and a return to fundamentals over fundraising theater. Companies should view profitability as primary validation, not Series A milestones.
The eFishery scandal was painful but necessary. Every maturing ecosystem has these clearing events (think Byjus, Luckin Coffee, FTX etc). The real opportunity lies ahead. AI is enabling Southeast Asian startups to go global from day one, shifting us from local consumption plays to productivity tools with worldwide reach. Companies like Mito Health can now launch in Singapore and scale to the US within months, something unthinkable a decade ago.
I’m not pessimistic about our region’s future; I’m bullish on what happens when we combine disciplined capital deployment with AI-enabled global reach. The VC playbook isn’t failing; it’s evolving. And that evolution positions Southeast Asia for sustainable, long-term success.
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